Archives for Peak_oil Transition Brockville (80)

Making choices early gives room to move in the future

Nelson Mail / Gord Stewart / 17 May 2013

Most Transition initiatives start with the formation of a steering group. This may be followed by some awareness raising and the launch of a community project or two. Some take on a charitable trust structure to allow easier access to funding. Many engage actively with local government and business.

Local interests and ingenuity drive activities, which can range from community supported agriculture, seed swaps and urban orchards to shared transport, tool “libraries”, crowd funding for wind energy and even local currencies.

The Transition movement attracts people who would rather change the future, than worry about it. What many groups are up to is not so dramatic really. It’s subtle change they’re after.

Sharon Astyk, writing on the UK Transition website (transitionnetwork.org), calls it the Theory of Anyway. She says, “What Transition promotes – living more simply, using less, reconnecting to our local economy and to more seasonal foods – is what I would be doing ‘anyway’, even if climate change proved to be no longer a problem, or peak oil was ‘solved’.”

[ FULL ARTICLE HERE ]

State of the World 2013: Is Sustainability Still Possible?

State of the World 2013 cuts through the rhetoric surrounding sustainability, offering a broad and realistic look at how close we are to fulfilling it today and which practices and policies will steer us in the right direction.

[ WEBSITE HERE ]

The Third Option

Hurriyet Daily News / Gwynne Dyer / 06 May 2013

The report [Unburnable Carbon 2013 by the Grantham Research Institute at LSE] assumes that rationality will prevail, and that at some point a limit will be imposed on the burning of fossil fuels. In this new reality, the debt burden of the fossil fuel companies becomes unsustainable and there is a financial meltdown that dwarfs 2008. Global warming is held to +2 degrees, but at the cost of the Mother of All Recessions.

The other option is that no controls are imposed on burning fossil fuels, and the carbon bubble does not burst until the warming breaks through the two-degree limit and triggers the natural feedbacks that will carry us inexorably up to +6 degrees C. That implies mass death and possibly civilisational collapse by the end of the century, but the fossil fuel reserves will retain their assumed value for the meantime and there will be no financial crash.

This is the scenario that the market is betting on, and at the moment most of the evidence supports that wager. The ideological and commercial interests that oppose action on climate change have triumphed in the United States and Canada, and without the Americans decisive action is hard to imagine.

[ FULL ARTICLE HERE ]

Why Successful Cities Will Be Largely Car-free by the End of 2015

Musings / Karen Lynn Allen / 17 April 2013

I realize this is a big, big claim to make. But we will go through all the factors step by step and see that it is the logical conclusion after taking into account trends already under way all around us. These trends are sometimes obvious, sometimes less so, but the impact they will have on demographics and energy use by 2015 are enormous. (Note: almost all the energy production data I will reference comes from the US Energy Information Administration.)

The first trend, the big kahuna of them all, although largely unpublicized, is that US energy consumption per person is dropping. And it’s going to drop more. Take all the BTUs of energy a country consumes (from whatever source—petroleum, coal, natural gas, nuclear, or renewables), add them all together, and divide by the population that year. For the US, we get:

[ FULL ARTICLE HERE ]

Peak Oil Demand is Already a Huge Problem

Our Finite World / Gail Tverberg / 11 April 2013

Peak demand is very much related to jobs. Peak oil demand occurs when a country is not competitive in the world market-place, and because of this, loses industry and jobs. One reason this happens is because the country’s energy cost structure is not competitive in the world market-place. With the run-up in oil prices starting about 2003, oil is by far the most expensive of the traditional energy sources we have available today. Countries that use a large percentage of oil in their energy mix can be expected to have a hard time competing, because of oil’s higher cost.

Anything else that is done which raises costs for businesses will also have an impact. This would include “carbon taxes,” if competitors do not have them, and if there is no tariff on imported goods to reflect carbon inputs.

[ FULL ARTICLE HERE ]

Jorgen Randers: what the future will be

Cassandra’s Legacy / Ugo Bardi / 07 April 2013

One problem with the The Limits to Growth was that the authors never specified by what mechanisms humankind could develop the consensus necessary to make the right choices, which all involved some sacrifices in the short term. After 40 years of work, Randers has arrived to a conclusion: there are no such mechanisms. The right choices were not made and never will be.

Today, Randers says, there is no more a fan of good and bad scenarios: there is only one; and it is not pleasant. It can only be the decline of our society, constrained by overpopulation, declining resource availability, and widespread damage caused by pollution and climate change. The start of the decline may come earlier or later; collapse may be faster or slower, but the shape of the future is determined.

Randers maintains that there is a simple way to describe the reasons that are taking us to this unpleasant future: people always make the choice that involves the least costs in the short term. The problem is all there: as long as we always choose the easiest road, we have no control on where we are going.

[ FULL ARTICLE HERE ]

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